Skip to content

2021 Governor · VA

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2021-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 785 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 50.57%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.644 − 50.574 = -1.930
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-1.930) = -2.070
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.070| = 2.070

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77138, race ID 8989 (538 database).