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2021 Governor · NJ

Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2021-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 823 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 44%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.23% · Republican 48.00%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.225 − 48.002 = 3.223
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (3.223) = 5.777
  4. Absolute miss = |5.777| = 5.777

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77143, race ID 8988 (538 database).