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2021 Governor · VA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2021-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 50.57%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.644 − 50.574 = -1.930
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.930) = -0.070
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.070| = 0.070

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77152, race ID 8989 (538 database).