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2021 Governor · VA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2021-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 1,081 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.1% · Republican 49.4%

R+2.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 50.57%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.1 − 49.4 = -2.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.644 − 50.574 = -1.930
  3. Signed miss = -2.30 − (-1.930) = -0.370
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.370| = 0.370

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77155, race ID 8989 (538 database).