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2021 Governor · NJ

Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling · fieldwork ended 2021-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 901 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 42%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.23% · Republican 48.00%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 42 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.225 − 48.002 = 3.223
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (3.223) = 4.777
  4. Absolute miss = |4.777| = 4.777

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77159, race ID 8988 (538 database).