2021 Governor · NJ
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2021-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 44%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.23% · Republican 48.00%
D+3.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 51.225 − 48.002 = 3.223
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (3.223) = 2.777
- Absolute miss = |2.777| = 2.777
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77165, race ID 8988 (538 database).