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2008 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 41.4%

D+5.3

The certified result

Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 41.4 = 5.30
  2. Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
  3. Signed miss = 5.30 − (7.400) = -2.100
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.100| = 2.100

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77725, race ID 38 (538 database).