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2012 President · FL

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 1,060 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.877) = -0.877
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.877| = 0.877

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77886, race ID 662 (538 database).