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2012 President · national

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 1,015 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.7% · Republican 46.6%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.91% · Republican 46.97%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.7 − 46.6 = -1.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.909 − 46.974 = 3.935
  3. Signed miss = -1.90 − (3.935) = -5.835
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.835| = 5.835

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77899, race ID 37 (538 database).