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2012 President · national

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 709 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.3% · Republican 45.1%

D+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 50.91% · Republican 46.97%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.3 − 45.1 = 1.20
  2. Actual margin = 50.909 − 46.974 = 3.935
  3. Signed miss = 1.20 − (3.935) = -2.735
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.735| = 2.735

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77901, race ID 37 (538 database).