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2012 Senate · VA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 46.1%

D+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 46.1 = 1.50
  2. Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
  3. Signed miss = 1.50 − (5.905) = -4.405
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.405| = 4.405

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77904, race ID 1501 (538 database).