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2022 House · NY-19

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-08-19 (4 days before the election) · 1,222 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 53%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.61% · Republican 40.35%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 53 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.609 − 40.347 = 5.262
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (5.262) = -13.261
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.261| = 13.261

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 79818, race ID 9503 (538 database).