Skip to content

2022 Senate · NC

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 1,081 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.2% · Republican 48.4%

R+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.27% · Republican 50.50%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.2 − 48.4 = -4.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.273 − 50.499 = -3.226
  3. Signed miss = -4.20 − (-3.226) = -0.974
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.974| = 0.974

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81145, race ID 8940 (538 database).