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2022 Senate · PA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 46.3% · Republican 45.5%

D+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.3 − 45.5 = 0.80
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = 0.80 − (4.913) = -4.113
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.113| = 4.113

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81152, race ID 8945 (538 database).