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2022 Governor · PA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 48.5% · Republican 42.2%

D+6.3

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.5 − 42.2 = 6.30
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 6.30 − (14.771) = -8.471
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.471| = 8.471

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81152, race ID 8979 (538 database).