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2022 Senate · WA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 782 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 42%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.15% · Republican 42.63%

D+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 42 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.148 − 42.630 = 14.518
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (14.518) = -4.518
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.518| = 4.518

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81181, race ID 8950 (538 database).