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2022 Senate · WA

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 1,181 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.15% · Republican 42.63%

D+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.148 − 42.630 = 14.518
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (14.518) = -11.518
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.518| = 11.518

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81183, race ID 8950 (538 database).