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2022 Senate · AZ

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,111 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 46.6% · Republican 44.8%

D+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.6 − 44.8 = 1.80
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = 1.80 − (4.888) = -3.087
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.087| = 3.087

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81188, race ID 8919 (538 database).