2022 House · MI-7
Glengariff Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 41.3%
D+5.7
The certified result
Democrat 51.73% · Republican 46.32%
D+5.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 41.3 = 5.70
- Actual margin = 51.732 − 46.316 = 5.416
- Signed miss = 5.70 − (5.416) = 0.284
- Absolute miss = |0.284| = 0.284
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81202, race ID 9201 (538 database).