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2022 Governor · OH

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 1,141 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 53%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 53 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-25.029) = 12.029
  4. Absolute miss = |12.029| = 12.029

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81208, race ID 8976 (538 database).