Skip to content

2022 Governor · TX

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 649 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 52%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.86% · Republican 54.76%

R+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.857 − 54.759 = -10.902
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-10.902) = 1.903
  4. Absolute miss = |1.903| = 1.903

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81213, race ID 8984 (538 database).