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2022 Governor · NH

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 53.9%

R+16.9

The certified result

Democrat 41.47% · Republican 56.98%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 53.9 = -16.90
  2. Actual margin = 41.472 − 56.985 = -15.513
  3. Signed miss = -16.90 − (-15.513) = -1.387
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.387| = 1.387

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81224, race ID 8973 (538 database).