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2022 Governor · PA

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 972 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 40%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 40 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (14.771) = -11.771
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.771| = 11.771

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81225, race ID 8979 (538 database).