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2022 House · MN-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 563 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 46%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.31% · Republican 53.83%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 46 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.306 − 53.827 = -11.521
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-11.521) = 2.521
  4. Absolute miss = |2.521| = 2.521

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81227, race ID 9209 (538 database).