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2022 Governor · NM

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,077 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 46.6%

R+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 51.97% · Republican 45.59%

D+6.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 46.6 = -1.10
  2. Actual margin = 51.971 − 45.588 = 6.383
  3. Signed miss = -1.10 − (6.383) = -7.484
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.484| = 7.484

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81230, race ID 8974 (538 database).