Skip to content

2022 Governor · PA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 1,084 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 45%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 45 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (14.771) = -5.771
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.771| = 5.771

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81233, race ID 8979 (538 database).