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2022 Senate · CT

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 41.7%

D+12.3

The certified result

Democrat 55.65% · Republican 42.54%

D+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 41.7 = 12.30
  2. Actual margin = 55.654 − 42.539 = 13.115
  3. Signed miss = 12.30 − (13.115) = -0.815
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.815| = 0.815

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81242, race ID 8923 (538 database).