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2022 House · CT-5

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 49.4%

R+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.62%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 49.4 = -0.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.810 − 48.623 = 0.187
  3. Signed miss = -0.70 − (0.187) = -0.888
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.888| = 0.888

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81242, race ID 9076 (538 database).