2022 Senate · FL
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 622 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 54%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.27% · Republican 57.68%
R+16.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 54 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 41.267 − 57.680 = -16.413
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-16.413) = 5.413
- Absolute miss = |5.413| = 5.413
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81262, race ID 8924 (538 database).