2022 Senate · FL
Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 1,251 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 51%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.27% · Republican 57.68%
R+16.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 41.267 − 57.680 = -16.413
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-16.413) = 9.413
- Absolute miss = |9.413| = 9.413
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81270, race ID 8924 (538 database).