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2022 Governor · WI

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 1,376 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.75%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.149 − 47.752 = 3.397
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (3.397) = -4.397
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.397| = 4.397

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81271, race ID 8986 (538 database).