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2022 Senate · GA

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 46%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (0.957) = -4.957
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.957| = 4.957

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81276, race ID 8925 (538 database).