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2022 Governor · IL

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 51.6% · Republican 42.3%

D+9.3

The certified result

Democrat 54.91% · Republican 42.37%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.6 − 42.3 = 9.30
  2. Actual margin = 54.907 − 42.369 = 12.538
  3. Signed miss = 9.30 − (12.538) = -3.238
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.238| = 3.238

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81279, race ID 8963 (538 database).