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2022 Governor · AZ

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone/Text

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 54%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 54 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (0.668) = -11.669
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.669| = 11.669

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81280, race ID 8954 (538 database).