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2022 Senate · IL

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 659 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 40%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.82% · Republican 41.50%

D+15.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 40 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.823 − 41.500 = 15.323
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (15.323) = 0.677
  4. Absolute miss = |0.677| = 0.677

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81282, race ID 8928 (538 database).