2022 Governor · IL
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 659 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 39%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.91% · Republican 42.37%
D+12.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 39 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 54.907 − 42.369 = 12.538
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (12.538) = 4.462
- Absolute miss = |4.462| = 4.462
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81282, race ID 8963 (538 database).