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2022 Senate · PA

Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 384 respondents · Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (4.913) = -0.913
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.913| = 0.913

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81298, race ID 8945 (538 database).