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2022 Governor · PA

Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 384 respondents · Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 36%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 36 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (14.771) = 7.229
  4. Absolute miss = |7.229| = 7.229

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81298, race ID 8979 (538 database).