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2022 Senate · GA

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 1,053 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.957) = -5.957
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.957| = 5.957

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81307, race ID 8925 (538 database).