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2022 Governor · PA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 750 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 50.2% · Republican 41.8%

D+8.4

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.2 − 41.8 = 8.40
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 8.40 − (14.771) = -6.371
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.371| = 6.371

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81313, race ID 8979 (538 database).