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2022 Governor · NV

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.1% · Republican 50.9%

R+6.8

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.1 − 50.9 = -6.80
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = -6.80 − (-1.510) = -5.290
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.290| = 5.290

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81316, race ID 8972 (538 database).