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2022 Senate · CO

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 826 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 49.9% · Republican 34.4%

D+15.5

The certified result

Democrat 55.88% · Republican 41.27%

D+14.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.9 − 34.4 = 15.50
  2. Actual margin = 55.884 − 41.266 = 14.618
  3. Signed miss = 15.50 − (14.618) = 0.882
  4. Absolute miss = |0.882| = 0.882

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81318, race ID 8922 (538 database).