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2022 Governor · MA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 33%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.69% · Republican 34.62%

D+29.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 33 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.691 − 34.618 = 29.073
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (29.073) = -1.073
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.073| = 1.073

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81323, race ID 8968 (538 database).