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2022 House · NH-1

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.00% · Republican 45.89%

D+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.004 − 45.886 = 8.118
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (8.118) = -4.118
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.118| = 4.118

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81324, race ID 9237 (538 database).