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2022 Governor · PA

Wick · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.2% · Republican 43.3%

D+5.9

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.2 − 43.3 = 5.90
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 5.90 − (14.771) = -8.871
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.871| = 8.871

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81327, race ID 8979 (538 database).