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2022 Senate · PA

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 1,716 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (4.913) = -7.913
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.913| = 7.913

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81335, race ID 8945 (538 database).