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2022 Governor · NY

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51.6% · Republican 44.4%

D+7.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.70% · Republican 41.43%

D+7.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.6 − 44.4 = 7.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.697 − 41.429 = 7.268
  3. Signed miss = 7.20 − (7.268) = -0.068
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.068| = 0.068

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81337, race ID 8975 (538 database).