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2022 Governor · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 43.2% · Republican 51.6%

R+8.4

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.2 − 51.6 = -8.40
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -8.40 − (-7.535) = -0.865
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.865| = 0.865

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81338, race ID 8960 (538 database).