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2022 House · NY-22

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 43%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.48% · Republican 43.38%

D+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 43 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.482 − 43.383 = 6.099
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (6.099) = -4.100
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.100| = 4.100

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81339, race ID 9275 (538 database).