2022 House · NM-3
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 434 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 35%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.16% · Republican 41.84%
D+16.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 35 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 58.157 − 41.843 = 16.314
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (16.314) = 1.685
- Absolute miss = |1.685| = 1.685
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81348, race ID 9253 (538 database).